— Topic —
16 receipts tracked • 79% industry hit rate
— Filed —
RECEIPT #BRIAN-
NOV 20, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Brian Wieser“It projects another 6.6% growth for the year ahead [2026].”
FOLLOW-UP
The prediction is for the year 2026, which has not yet occurred. There is no outcome available in the provided materials to evaluate this forecast.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
YouTube - MediaoceanRECEIPT #BRIAN-
APR 21, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Brian Wieser“Wieser highlights 'commerce media'… as leading segments.”
FOLLOW-UP
This is a qualitative prediction about a trend. While commerce media continues to be a focus, the degree to which it is 'leading' is subjective and not definitively confirmed or refuted by the provided materials.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
ForbesRECEIPT #BRIAN-
APR 21, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Brian Wieser“Political ad spending in 2024 would total about $15.1 billion.”
FOLLOW-UP
The year 2024 is not yet complete, and the provided materials do not contain a final figure for 2024 political ad spending to confirm or deny this prediction.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
AdweekEVIDENCE
RECEIPT #BRIAN-
SEP 09, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Brian Wieser“‘The second half of 2024 *should* exhibit deceleration given prior year underlying growth rates of 7.5% and 10.6% during last year’s third and fourth quarters, respectively,’ he wrote, though he added that ‘recognizing that multiple factors are responsible for recent conditions, we can’t point to any specific sources of deceleration in the second half of the year beyond the harder comparable.’”
FOLLOW-UP
Wieser's own data, with strong H1 growth and a lower full-year forecast, implied H2 deceleration. Contemporaneous coverage explicitly described slower growth, consistent with his prediction.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
Marketing BrewRECEIPT #BRIAN-
OCT 31, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Brian Wieser“…eventually level out to a more typical, mid-single-digit growth rate – down from 7.2% overall in 2024 to 5.3% in 2025.”
FOLLOW-UP
A later LinkedIn-posted summary says Wieser cut his 2025 outlook to 3.6%, implying the 5.3% forecast was subsequently revised down.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
AdExchangerRECEIPT #BRIAN-
SEP 04, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Brian Wieser“If added in, [political ad spending] would boost the 2024 U.S. ad economy up in the double digits -- 10.5% -- if included.”
FOLLOW-UP
The provided results do not include a final audited total for 2024, so I cannot verify the realized outcome from your sources alone.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
MediaPostRECEIPT #BRIAN-
SEP 04, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Brian Wieser“2024 will grow 7.2% over 2023. Importantly, the growth estimate excludes what is projected to be a banner year for U.S. political ad spending, which if added in, would boost the 2024 U.S. ad economy up in the double digits -- 10.5% -- if included.”
FOLLOW-UP
Later coverage described 2024 as a year of strong growth but also a slowdown in the second half; the forecast itself was not contradicted in the provided results, but Wieser’s later 2025 outlook implied a return to more normal growth rates after 2024.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
MediaPostRECEIPT #BRIAN-
JAN 18, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Brian Wieser“U.S. ad industry revenue should increase a bit more this quarter and year than previously expected thanks to improved economic conditions and forecasts… the industry analyst now expects 5.6% growth in 2024, up from a prior 5.2% annual growth forecast.”
FOLLOW-UP
He later revised this forecast upward multiple times, including to 6.3% in June and 7.2% by September, indicating the outcome tracked above his January forecast.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
AdAgeRECEIPT #BRIAN-
SEP 09, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Brian Wieser“If the economy keeps churning, he expects to credit that to the rise of retail media as well as a wave of ‘cross-border spending originating with overseas marketers, especially those based in China such as Temu and Shein.’”
FOLLOW-UP
Retail media and cross-border e-commerce marketers like Temu and Shein continued to be cited as significant drivers of ad spending throughout 2024.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
Marketing BrewRECEIPT #BRIAN-
SEP 09, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Brian Wieser““The second half of 2024 *should* exhibit deceleration given prior year underlying growth rates of 7.5% and 10.6% during last year’s third and fourth quarters, respectively,” he wrote, though he added that “recognizing that multiple factors are responsible for recent conditions, we can’t point to any specific sources of deceleration in the second half of the year beyond the harder comparable.””
FOLLOW-UP
Subsequent industry commentary supported the idea of a slowdown in growth rates during the second half of 2024, attributed to tougher comparisons rather than a downturn.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
Marketing BrewRECEIPT #BRIAN-
SEP 04, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Brian Wieser“Citing a "much stronger than expected" second-quarter expansion of 9.6%, Wieser now projects that 2024 will grow 7.2% over 2023. Importantly, the growth estimate excludes what is projected to be a banner year for U.S. political ad spending, which if added in, would boost the 2024 U.S. ad economy up in the double digits -- 10.5% -- if included.”
FOLLOW-UP
This forecast of 7.2% for non-political ad spending and 10.5% including political ad spending for 2024 appears consistent with later reports and industry consensus for 2024.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
MediaPostRECEIPT #BRIAN-
MAR 18, 2025
PREDICTION BY
Brian Wieser“the latest forecast, published today (March 18), places non-political ad spending growth at 3.6% for the year, a notable step down from the 4.5% growth forecast just a few months ago.”
FOLLOW-UP
This is a forecast for full-year 2025 U.S. non-political ad-spend growth. Full-year 2025 actual data will not be available until after the year concludes and industry reports are published.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
DigidayRECEIPT #BRIAN-
JUL 01, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Brian Wieser“Madison and Wall’s Brian Wieser, who previously managed GroupM’s ad forecasts, also raised his U.S. ad forecast for 2024 to 6.3%, up from the 5.6% he predicted in March.”
FOLLOW-UP
Full, authoritative, final 2024 U.S. ad-spend figures on the exact same basis (non-political, all media) are not yet available in a fully harmonized form from a single public source that matches Wieser’s definitions. Therefore, it is not yet possible to reliably state whether this forecast was met, beaten, or missed.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
Campaign (Campaignlive.com)RECEIPT #BRIAN-
MAR 18, 2025
PREDICTION BY
Brian Wieser““We have a lot of non-zero probability of really, really terrible outcomes,” he said. “And no evidence that I’ve seen suggests an extreme upside.””
FOLLOW-UP
Macro and political uncertainties continued to weigh on advertiser sentiment, consistent with Wieser's depiction of meaningful downside risk and lack of clear 'extreme upside' signals. However, 'really, really terrible outcomes' had not materialized as of the latest available data, with ad spending continuing to grow modestly. The prediction describes probabilities that remain plausible but are still untested against full-cycle outcomes through 2030.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
AdExchangerRECEIPT #BRIAN-
MAR 18, 2025
PREDICTION BY
Brian Wieser“Madison and Wall’s new forecast predicts that digital advertising will continue to gain a larger share of spending and industry revenue, from 67% in 2024 to possibly 79% in 2030. What’s more, there still might be room to grow – not to 100%, Wieser said, but possibly 90%.”
FOLLOW-UP
The starting share of digital advertising in 2024 (around two-thirds) matches independent industry estimates. However, it is too early to assess the 2030 figures of 79% or 90%.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
AdExchangerRECEIPT #BRIAN-
MAR 18, 2025
PREDICTION BY
Brian Wieser“The predicted growth rate of 3.6% will continue mostly unchanged over the next few years, with a possible uptick in 2028 resulting from the Los Angeles Olympic Games, the advisory firm suggests.”
FOLLOW-UP
Early data for 2025 supports the general direction of sluggish, low-single-digit growth, but it is too early to validate or falsify the detailed path of growth for 2026-2028 and the 2028 Olympic-driven uptick.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
AdExchanger